Agboola, Kenny Mark and Covenant University, Theses (2023) OIL PRICE VOLATILITY, OIL CONSUMPTION AND PRODUCTIVITY IN SELECTED SECTORS IN NIGERIA: IMPLICATIONS FOR STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION. Masters thesis, Covenant University Ota.
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Abstract
Crude oil, being a vital production input in Nigeria subsists in its controversy of whether it is to be accepted as a blessing or a curse. Particularly, it is pertinent to understand how fluctuations in oil prices fosters economic growth or otherwise clogs the wheel towards its structural transformation. Drawing upon a fundamental assumption, this research delves into an inquiry regarding the repercussions of oil price instability and oil consumption on the efficiency of the Nigerian economy. Additionally, this study evaluates the manifestation of structural transformation stemming from these impacts through implementation of the Vector Autoregression (VAR) technique. The study selects the three broad sectors (Agriculture, Industry, and Services) critical to the structural transformation of the economy as modeled by the Fisher-Clark theory. The presence of price variability in the oil market was confirmed through the application of the GARCH method, which utilized the conditional variances derived from the model as the data set for measuring the volatility of oil prices. Both the Vector Autoregression (VAR) model and the normalized equation's outcomes have demonstrated an unfavorable correlation between oil price volatility, real exchange rate, and agricultural and services sectors' productivity. In contrast, the industrial sector's productivity has demonstrated a favorable correlation with these variables. Additionally, whereas the productivity of the agricultural and industrial sectors is positively correlated with their respective oil consumption, the productivity of the service sector, on the other hand, exhibited a negative correlation with its oil consumption. Also, oil price volatility shows more variation for service sector productivity compared to other sectors. However, the result of the granger causality of the sectors productivities does not give evidence of structural transformation in the economy. The study therefore recommends the implementation of energy policies that imbues resilience in the sectors to enhance and sustain productivity despite fluctuations in oil prices.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Masters) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Oil Price, Oil Consumption, Volatility, Productivity, Structural Transformation |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General) H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Law, Arts and Social Sciences > School of Management Faculty of Law, Arts and Social Sciences > School of Social Sciences |
| Depositing User: | nwokealisi |
| Date Deposited: | 18 Sep 2023 14:25 |
| Last Modified: | 18 Sep 2023 14:25 |
| URI: | http://eprints.covenantuniversity.edu.ng/id/eprint/17302 |
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