Odekina, O. G. and Adedotun, Adedayo F. and Imaga, O. F. (2022) Modeling and Forecasting the Third wave of Covid-19 Incidence Rate in Nigeria Using Vector Autoregressive Model Approach. Journal of the Nigerian Society of Physical Sciences, 4. pp. 117-122. ISSN 117–122
![[img]](http://eprints.covenantuniversity.edu.ng/style/images/fileicons/application_pdf.png) |
PDF
Download (647kB) |
Abstract
Modeling the onset of a pandemic is important for forming inferences and putting measures in place. In this study, we used the Vector autoregressive model to model and forecast the number of confirmed covid-19 cases and deaths in Nigeria, taking into account the relationship that exists between both multivariate variables. Before using the Vector Autoregressive model, a co-integration test was performed. An autocorrelation test and a heteroscedasticity test were also performed, and it was discovered that there is no autocorrelation at lags 3 and 4, as well as no heteroscedasticity. According to the findings of the study, the number of covid-19 cases and deaths is on the rise. To forecast the number of cases and deaths, a Vector Autoregressive model with lag 4 was used. The projection likewise shows a steady increase in the number of deaths over time, but a minor drop in the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Covid-19, Vector Autoregressive model, Akaike Information Criterion, Final Prediction Error, Hannan Quinn Information Criterion |
| Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Engineering, Science and Mathematics > School of Mathematics |
| Depositing User: | nwokealisi |
| Date Deposited: | 10 Nov 2023 13:13 |
| Last Modified: | 10 Nov 2023 13:13 |
| URI: | http://eprints.covenantuniversity.edu.ng/id/eprint/17568 |
Actions (login required)
 |
View Item |
