Medium-Term Load Forecasting Of Covenant University Using The Regression Analysis Methods

Samuel, I. A. and Chihurumanya, Felly-Njoku and Adewale, Adeyinka A. and Awelewa, A. A. (2014) Medium-Term Load Forecasting Of Covenant University Using The Regression Analysis Methods. Journal of Energy Technologies and Policy, 4 (4). ISSN 2224-3232 (Paper) ISSN 2225-0573 (Online)

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Abstract

Electric load forecasting is principal to the economic and efficient provision of electric power to meet various load demands for a specified period of time. The focus of this paper is on the medium-term load forecast of Covenant University, a Nigerian tertiary educational institution, using the methods of regression analysis. The hourly load information collected from the University’s electric power substation is employed as the sample data for the forecast. Three models based on the linear, compound-growth, and cubic methods of regression analysis are developed, and the load forecast results obtained from these models are compared using the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE) performance metrics. It is observed that, among these three models, the linear model has the best error margin: 0.5792 and 41.34 for MAPE and RMSE, respectively

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	load forecasting, medium-term, Covenant University, regression-based methods, MAPE, RMSE
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science T Technology > T Technology (General)
Divisions:	Faculty of Engineering, Science and Mathematics > School of Electronics and Computer Science
Depositing User:	Mrs Patricia Nwokealisi
Date Deposited:	20 Jun 2017 10:41
Last Modified:	20 Jun 2017 10:41
URI:	http://eprints.covenantuniversity.edu.ng/id/eprint/8381

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